BWS Capital Partners, LLC

Ahh…going back and forth

A sluggish recovery in the U.S. retail sector accelerated last month, with the industry posting a 4% gain in sales compared with February 2009, according to data from Thomson Reuters. It was the biggest increase since November 2007 and marked the sixth consecutive month of improvement.

Thanks to UK

Greece’s debt woes have caused volatility in the market, causing many banks to refrain from raising funds. As the U.K. general election nears, however, the bond market might not get any calmer, according to this Reuters analysis. Bankers said they are not concerned about their ability to raise cash but rather uncertainty about what they would be forced to pay for it.

Where’s the result?

The economic crisis brought welcome change to the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and other multilateral development banks, but there is room for more, according to The Economist. Between 2005 and 2009, the IDB doubled the percentage of its projects that were closely reviewed for effect, but the result was still a disappointing 14%. “Changing that would be an excellent use of a once-in-a-generation crisis,” The Economist notes.

Bubbling over

The fact that China is in the middle of a real estate boom is widely accepted, but there is no agreement on whether the expansion has turned into an asset bubble, according to The New York Times. Bubble bursts have crippled other countries, and a sharp downturn in China could have painful consequences elsewhere. “By all the traditional measures, like rental yield, this is a bubble,” said Andy Xie, an independent analyst and a former economist at Morgan Stanley.

Getting old

Despite the small size of the Greek economy, its widely publicized debt problem is creating risk for the U.S. recovery. Analysts are worried that a default by Greece could set in motion another global financial crisis. For example, Thailand’s debt crisis of 1997 and 1998 turned into a financial meltdown for all of East Asia, indicating how a local problem can spread in an unpredictable way, experts said.

Deep pocket

The U.S. House passed a $15 billion jobs bill in a 217-201 vote. Tax breaks for employers who hire jobless workers are the centerpiece of the measure. Other provisions include an accelerated write-off for companies that buy equipment, an expansion of the Build America Bonds program and a one-year extension of the law that authorizes highway-construction funding. Because of revisions made by the House, the measure must go back to the Senate for another vote.

Duhhhh

Greece’s latest austerity measures are probably enough to carry the nation through its debt crisis, but it falls largely to Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou to make them work, according to The Economist. A timetable set by the EU is quite demanding, and Greece will soon need to overhaul its tax laws and state pension system. “If Greece is to stay on course, Mr. Papaconstantinou and his team will have to keep putting in long hours,” The Economist notes.

No IceSave

A lengthy dispute regarding Iceland’s debt to the U.K. and the Netherlands because of Icesave’s collapse likely will remain unresolved after a referendum this weekend. Many anticipate an overwhelming “No” vote in Iceland, rejecting a deal the government negotiated and the parliament approved. The referendum was called after Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson refused to sign legislation finalizing repayment.

New trend: austerity

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said the next budget begins a transition from stimulus spending to austerity. He said spending cuts would wipe out the deficit and give Canada a surplus by the fiscal year of 2015 to 2016. The Conservative government aims to reach this objective without raising taxes or reducing spending on health care or education. The three opposition parties said the plan would not do enough to support employment.

Disclosure requirements

Traders will be required to disclose to BaFin, Germany’s financial regulator, short positions exceeding a preset level of outstanding shares of Deutsche Bank, Allianz, Commerzbank and several other financial institutions. The disclosure is needed “to allow supervisors to act early, quickly and specifically against short selling that poses a danger to the proper conduct of securities trading and the stability of the financial system,” BaFin said.

Playing ball

Christopher Dodd, chairman of the U.S. Senate banking committee, said the panel’s members have not agreed on a proposal for a consumer-protection unit or the broader overhaul of financial regulation. Lawmakers are also considering derivatives regulation and the creation of a resolution authority for unwinding systemically important financial institutions. “I’ve asked people to think about this, to mull it over, have staffs get back, give us their reaction to these things,” Dodd said. “There is no agreement.”

Breaking even

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told the National People’s Congress that the country faces a “crucial but complicated” recovery this year and that the gross domestic product will expand about 8%. The government will seek to hold an increase in the consumer price index to 3%, he said.

Dry sand

Fund managers in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and across the Persian Gulf region are paying the price for publicity generated by Middle Eastern corporate defaults and the restructuring of Dubai World’s debt. Funds are drying up so quickly that some asset-management firms at the Dubai International Financial Center are having difficulty covering their operating expenses. Industry sources said some managers might be forced to lay off employees.

UK’s double dip

Britain’s housing market is on the verge of slipping back into recession, analysts said. Halifax said house prices dropped 1.5% between January and February. Nationwide reported a 1% decline for January.

Internal restriction

A 1993 decision by Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court forces Chancellor Angela Merkel to “walk a fine line” in her scheduled meeting with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, said Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas. When the court approved Germany’s entry into the eurozone, it said the ratification of the treaty will be “reversed” if the region fails to maintain monetary stability, Redeker said. If Germany is “too loose” with Greece, the court might force a withdrawal from the eurozone, Redeker said.

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increase unemployment is offset by increase in temp work…what a fake increase